Brave Hunter

Global Macro Watchlist

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Yields

Forward Curves

5y5y Forward Inflation

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Breakeven Inflation Curve 5Y · 10Y · 30Y tenors

Forward Treasury Curves Spot · 1Y-Fwd · 5Y-Fwd

Forward yields computed via par-yield bootstrapping approximation from current spot curve.

Fed Funds Futures Path —

Market-implied Fed funds path from CME 30-day Fed Funds futures (ZQ) via Yahoo Finance. Vertical dashed lines mark scheduled FOMC meeting dates.

💡 For higher resolution (real-time, official settlements): subscribe to IBKR CME market data (~$10-15/mo) and swap the data source in cme_client.py — schema and API surface stay the same.

Nominal GDP Growth (YoY) vs 30Y Treasury Yield

Repression Signposts

Real 10Y (TIPS): — 10Y Breakeven: — 5y5y Fwd Inflation: — 2s10s: —

How to read. The Real 10Y (chart above, "10-Year Real Yield") is the 10Y yield minus market-implied inflation — the true price of long-term money and the cleanest gauge of financial repression: ~+2% means lenders are fully compensated; grinding toward 0 while inflation runs above target means the long end is being captured. Breakevens (5Y/10Y) are the market's implied average inflation; the 5y5y forward is where the market thinks inflation settles beyond 5 years — the anchor. 2s10s is the market's vote on funding the long end: bear-steepening = term premium being demanded.

Repression working — real 10Y grinds down while breakevens drift up (yields held below the inflation being priced). Slow-grind debasement: gold / BTC / hard assets grind higher, vol stays sellable.
Repression failing — nominal 10Y and breakevens rise together, real 10Y flat-to-up, 2s10s bear-steepens. The market is refusing to fund it at the offered price; expect forceful policy response (SLR relief, buybacks, YCC-lite) and a violent rather than gradual hard-asset move. Long rate-vol (MOVE) pays here.
Anchor slipping — 5y5y forward sustained above ~2.5% and rising while growth stalls: the 1970s branch. Stagflation basket (gold, energy, commodities) over equities; equity vol structurally higher, VRP unreliable.
Lid on — real 10Y ≈ 2%+, breakevens anchored ~2.3%, curve modestly steep: compensation still fair, nothing forced yet. This is the current regime.

Debasement Watch

How to read. Stage-two detectors: did the western debasement bid arrive? The eastern bid (PBoC + Chinese households) drove the 2024–26 gold repricing while western ETF holdings bled — so the tell for stage two is ETF creations, which only happen when western money buys. Gold in GLD Trust is actual tonnes held (SPDR official, daily since 2004): metal only enters the trust on creations, so its 4-week change is the western gold flow, price-independent. BTC in IBIT Trust is actual coins held (iShares official) — the BTC ETF bid, the fastest-horse detector. Fed BS Growth (13W ann.) is the RMP throttle: positive and rising = the balance sheet re-expansion is live, the impulse these flows should respond to.

Flows chasing the throttle — WALCL growth turns positive, GLD/IBIT creations follow within weeks: stage two confirmed, add on flushes.
Throttle without flows — balance sheet growing but no creations: repression running ahead of recognition; the entry window is still open.
Flows without throttle — creations spike while the Fed still shrinks: front-running or a fear bid; check credit spreads before reading it as stage two.

GLD tonnes + flow have full history. iShares publishes only current IBIT holdings, so BTC-in-trust accumulates daily from 2026-08-28 and its 4-week flow populates from late Sep 2026.

Velocity

How to read. Speed breaks the system, not levels — every leveraged actor (VaR, margin, hedge ratios) is calibrated to recent history, and forced flows chase fast moves in their own direction. Each row shows the 1-week and 1-month change z-scored against ~5 years of that instrument's own same-length moves (robust MAD scale, so a violent quarter doesn't stretch the yardstick). Gray inside ±1σ is the design goal: a boring board. Amber ≥1σ deserves a look; red ≥2σ on a rates row is the short-gamma system being tested — that's the 2019/2020/gilt-crisis signature. The Realized vs MOVE chart is the suppression test: realized 10Y vol persistently above MOVE = implied vol is underpricing reality (and convexity is cheap). Fed BS Acceleration is the throttle hand moving: 13W growth now minus 13W growth a quarter ago.

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10Y Realized Vol vs MOVE —

Realized = 20-day stdev of daily 10Y yield changes, annualized to bp/yr (same units as MOVE). Chip shows MOVE − realized (rates VRP): negative = realized exceeding implied.

Fiscal

How to read. Gromen's "True Interest Expense" treats entitlements as senior implicit debt: benefits are politically harder to cut than bond coupons, CPI-indexed, and demographically compounding — so bond interest + Social Security + Medicare + Medicaid + VA is the real fixed-cost line, measured against tax receipts. Two versions: Gross is the headline construction (entitlement outlays in the numerator, the payroll taxes that fund them excluded from the denominator — critics call this asymmetric); Net subtracts payroll receipts from the numerator, the symmetric accounting that survives the critique. Above the dashed 100% line, fixed obligations exceed revenue and every discretionary dollar — all of defense included — is borrowed. Avg Rate vs 10Y is the rollover ratchet: the implied average coupon on the whole debt stock vs the rate new borrowing actually costs; while the 10Y sits above the average rate, the interest bill rises mechanically every quarter even with zero new deficits.

Gross >100%, Net <100% — fixed costs exceed non-payroll revenue but the symmetric version still clears: hooped-adjacent, running on payroll surplus and borrowing.
Net crosses 100% — fixed obligations exceed all revenue under the most favorable accounting: monetization or repression is no longer a forecast, it's the operating state.
Avg rate converging on the 10Y — the rollover ratchet exhausting: the legacy low-coupon stock is gone and the full debt reprices at market.

Avg Debt Cost vs 10Y (Rollover Ratchet) —

Avg rate = NIPA interest expense ÷ gross federal debt (quarterly). Chip = 10Y − avg rate: positive means maturing debt rolls over at higher cost.

FED

SRF Usage — Turns vs Stress —

Amber = usage within ±2 business days of a month-end (statement-date turns; expected, watch the spikes grow). Red = all other days (normal is zero — any lift is the funding-stress signal; Sep 2019 / Mar 2020 pattern). Chip = largest ex-turn print in the trailing 90 days.

Money Supply

Credit & Inflation

Commodities

Volatility

Global Liquidity

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Regime

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Global Liquidity Composite vs Bitcoin

Composite z-score (L) · BTC/USD (R)

Cycle Indicators

Sub-Index Drilldown

Quality Overlays

Reserve Adequacy

Global Liquidity Proxy — Howell-style methodology, ~80-85% replication of his published Global Liquidity Index. This is NOT CrossBorder Capital's licensed index.

v1 coverage: Central Bank Liquidity uses Fed + ECB + BoJ (≈75-80% of major-CB magnitude). PBoC, BoE, and 5 smaller CBs are documented gaps. Z.1 contribution uses BOGZ1FL892090005Q (modern Z.1 line item); TCMDO is shown as a separate reference series. Offshore $ rate spread is winsorized at ±100bps to prevent single-day outliers (e.g., Sept 2019 SOFR spike) from dominating z-score normalization.

Regime classifier: 12-month YoY % change of the 3-month smoothed composite. Expansion ≥+5%; Late-Cycle ≥0% with negative slope; Inflection in [−5%, 0%) or with trailing-30d sign change; Contraction <−5%. Matches Howell's published regime calls at sanity-check dates (Mar 2020 Inflection, Jun 2020 Expansion, Oct 2022 Contraction).

What's missing: non-US shadow banking detail, granular private credit fund flows, real-time collateral velocity, PBoC granularity. These gaps are shared with Howell's index in many cases.

Full methodology: docs/liquidity_framework.md